August 10, 2022

Aston Villa has become one of the hottest teams in the English Premier League. It has overcome early season struggles to stabilize form and now has won three games on the bounce with a 9-0 goal differential.

West Ham has been solid as of late as well, winning two and drawing two of their past five games, with the lone loss to Liverpool. But the Hammers also lost their midweek Europa League home match to Spanish side Sevilla.

As it stands, West Ham is just a few points out of a European spot and a win would go a long way toward keeping that chase alive. Aston Villa is secure with its position in the middle of the table, but that hasn’t stopped the Villans from keeping their intensity high of late.

West Ham has held an expected-goal advantage in each league home game since Dec. 1, and at a generous +130 price, I feel it’s worth taking the chance on the host side since Villa has played as well as it can over recent weeks.

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A touch of regression can be expected, giving the edge to West Ham.

The play: West Ham ML (+130)