August 17, 2022

UFC Fight Night is back Saturday with main eventers Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

The UFC Fight Night prelims start at 1 p.m. ET. with the main card at 4 p.m. ET. The entire card is on ESPN+.

Quick update on the record for UFC picks followers

  • Current record on straight bets: 11-5 with average odds of just over +213!
  • Backers are profiting 23.0 units since 3/19.
  • We have only had two losing weeks and have had straight weeks in the green!
  • The parlay is just 2-5 but is still profiting 6.0 units.

All odds were accurate at the time of writing. Good luck!

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UFC Fight Night picks
Alexander Volkov
Zuffa LLC

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UFC Fight Night best bets

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The big man! Volkov has an opportunity after a submission loss to Tom Aspinall. Heavyweight kickboxer Rozenstruik is a fighter with ferocious power but not much else.

Rozenstruik can’t grapple or put together volumes of strikes to eke out decisions. Volkov is great at distance management and averages 4.83 significant strikes landed per minute. This is much better than Rozenstruik who averages 2.80 significant strikes landed, per UFCStats.

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Volkov could get flash KO’d, but that is not worth a bet here. He has only been knocked out by Derrick Lewis in the UFC and Rozenstriuk has not proven to be that level of a contender.

Look for Volkov to get back on track here.

Best bet: Volkov wins by decision +200 (Caesars)

Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov

Has anyone been following this saga? Askar Mozharov had a 25-11 record a few days ago but has had wins taken away and a loss added. As of Friday, Mozharov is 19-12 in his professional career.

This has been a problem in fighting for years — fighters padding their records with cupcake opponents overseas. Sherdog even went as far to call this Mozharov a fraud for doing so. The Ukrainian fighter lost a fight in TitanFC in the first round to Cristian Torres who has a career 15-12 record. Menifield is a different animal.

Mozharov calls himself, “The Ukrainian Conor McGregor” but is being crucified in the MMA media this week. Inexplicably, this line opened at -140/+120, further showing that oddsmakers don’t really know how to line MMA when odds first open up.

Since the drama with Mozharov’s record and such, Menifield has moved as high as -250 and could be -350 by fight time. Menifield to win in under 2.5 rounds is +104 on PointsBet, which is an incorrect line.

Most other sportsbooks have Menifield in under 1.5 rounds at -150. Here, we get an extra round and a better value by 11.08% in implied odds. This is the best bet on the card by a wide margin.

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Best bet: Menifield wins in under 2.5 rounds +104 (PointsBet)

UFC Fight Night parlay and predictions
Alonzo Menifield
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

UFC Fight Night parlay +1130: Menifield wins in round 1 or 2 (-125) + Volkov/Rozenstruik starts round 3 (-235) + Tony Gravely wins by decision (+250) + Blanchfield/Aldrich GTD (-270)

+1130 on today’s UFC Fight Night parlay is a good-looking bet. This was placed on FanDuel Sportsbook using their UFC parlay insurance promotion. With a max of $25, if one bet loses, you will get the entire bet back in a free bet. A few notes before we get started:

  • Tony Gravely is a phenomenal wrestler, averaging 6.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Munhoz is a solid fighter in his own right but could be too content to sit on his back and hunt for submissions. The worst strategy in MMA does nothing but lose minutes and rounds.
  • Erin Blanchfield and JJ Aldrich are the first fight on the card. Two decision machines, Blanchfield hasn’t had a fight end inside the distance since 2020 when she was fighting for Invicta. The same can be said for Aldrich who has had five straight fights end in a decision and hasn’t had a fight end inside the distance since 2019.