August 15, 2022

The Avalanche have not been near their best over the last four contests, but we are certainly in the dog days of the regular season for a Colorado group up by a zillion points in the Central and waiting for the postseason. The Avs will try to bounce back Thursday against the Metro-leading Carolina Hurricanes.

The defensive play has been at times soft and lackadaisical over that small sample for Colorado, but the roster on hand is still the best in the league and has the Avs deservedly still sitting as the outright Stanley Cup favorite, and the pace this team can play at with so much offensive talent both up front and on the back end is simply unmanageable when true to form.

And with that said, I like this as a spot for us to see Colorado play closer to its top level in a great tuneup contest against another of the league’s true Cup contenders in Carolina, who I think regular readers know I respect.

Frederik Andersen
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At even-strength I still think the Avalanche have a big edge in their ability to generate offense, and it seems more likely Carolina’s two conceivable edges over the Avs being a historically strong penalty-killing unit and unbelievable play from Frederik Andersen are less sustainable than the Avs ridiculous offensive upside.

With the game opening as close to a pick-em, I feel we have value backing Colorado’s current line of -115, and would bet the Avs to -130. Should Andersen end up sitting again we will certainly gain a lot of value having locked in -115 early, but if Andersen plays we still won’t see better by puck drop anyway.

The play: Avalanche -115, (Play to -130).