August 17, 2022

With so many options available, betting the Champions League Final can often feel intimidating for new bettors.

Whether you’re backing a side, total, goalscorer, corners or, heck, even “either team to hit the woodwork,” there are myriad options to choose. Then there’s the single-game parlay, which bettors can use to combine a number of outcomes for one match to (hopefully) get a larger payout.

So, we’re here to tackle just as we present our best single-game parlay featuring three outcomes I believe are likely on their own. Odds are reflective at time of writing and subject to movement.

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Parlay Leg #1 – Liverpool Double Chance

Odds via BetMGM

It’s my operating assumption that Liverpool will win the match after 90 minutes + injury time, but we’ll add a little insurance here.

Across the last 10 Champions League Finals, only one underdog has won the match outright at the end of regular time. That, of course, was Chelsea in last year’s final. Before that match, favorites had a brilliant record of either winning the match or pushing it to added extra time. Before Chelsea, the last underdog to win outright in 90 minutes was Barcelona in 2009. However, it was only a +171 underdog on the three-way moneyline.

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So far this Champions League, Liverpool has only posted one outright defeat in 12 fixtures and it came undeservedly. On the flip-side, Real Madrid has won only two of its last six UCL fixtures at the end of 90 minutes.

Real Madrid players celebrate during their semifinal win over Manchester City.
Real Madrid players celebrate during their semifinal win over Manchester City.
AFP via Getty Images

Parlay Leg #2 – Both Teams to Score

This market is hovering between -165 and -175 depending on where you shop and I find good reason behind those numbers.

I’ll be downright shocked if Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in this match. Across its six UCL knockout round fixtures, it has never kept a clean sheet in the first 90 minutes. Include its six group stage fixtures and bettors will find Los Blancos have kept four clean sheets in 12 UCL fixtures, at least two of which were undeserved.

Against a Liverpool attack that generated at least 1.5 xG in five straight UCL fixtures, expect it to get on the board. That said, Liverpool’s defense has conceded at least once in five consecutive non-cup matches and allowed at least one tally in four of six UCL knockout matches.

For all of Madrid’s luck, manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side has proven capable of generating chances. Against a tired Liverpool dense, expect it to notch a tally.

Liverpool star Mohamed Salah
Liverpool star Mohamed Salah
Getty Images

Parlay Leg #3 – Over 2.5 Goals

I won’t fault you for playing this market on its own, but I see enough of an edge that I’m confident to use it in a parlay.

In its six knockout matches and two group matches against Inter, Real Madrid conceded 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes. As mentioned earlier, that will not do well against a Liverpool offense that ranks second in the competition in big scoring chances created (30), per fotmob.com.

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Plus, just in four matches against Inter and Villarreal, the Reds generated north of 1.7 xG/90 minutes. It has also scored at least twice in all but one of its 12 UCL matches this season.


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Assuming Real does its job and cashes the BTTS prop, I feel as though this bet is safe in Liverpool’s hands.

Conclusion

Putting together all three of those legs gets this single-game parlay to +165 at BetMGM. Relatedly, if you’re feeling friskier, I don’t hate using over 3.5 goals instead of the last leg. That would move this parlay to +260, a price I’m willing to take given how open I expect this match to be.